Previewing Day 2 of the Big Ten Conference Tournament

Well, day one is in the books on the Big Ten Tournament and Ohio State and Purdue picked up victories. Ohio State had an 8th inning rally which accounted for all five of their runs to beat Minnesota 5-3. Purdue was down 2-0 before firing off seven unanswered runs which, behind the right arm of Matt Morgan was plenty to cruise passed Penn State. You can find plenty of recaps around the web, so I won’t spend too much time on that.

Let’s look ahead to tomorrow where Ohio State will take on the top seed Illinois Fighting illini. Meanwhile, The Boilermakers win got them a match up with the second-seeded Michigan State Spartans. As a result of their losses, fifth-seeded Minnesota will play sixth-seeded Penn State, as well.

What I will do is use a method called the Log5 to determine the likelihood each team wins their games tomorrow. Read the rest of this entry »


2010 Big Ten Conference Recap: Michigan State Pitching

Now that I’ve covered both pitching and hitting on the team level, I’m going to delve into the same stuff  on the individual level.

My plan to look at individual pitching is to look for each team. Each post should be shorter than long-winded posts on all of the teams at once. With this being a Michigan State baseball blog, after all, I’ve decided to focus on the Spartans first in the series.

The Spartans on the team level allowed a league-low 309 runs versus an estimated 311 which also led the Big Ten. AJ Achter, now a Minnesota Twin, really paced the Spartans’ staff. He led the team in innings pitched (98.2), strikeouts (74),  and total batters faced (432).  He also had a team-high 36 walks and 12 hit batters.

Kurt Wunderlich and Tony Bucciferro rounded out the normal 3-man rotation as they combined to start 76% of the Spartans games. Andrew Waszak’s 9 starts made him only other MSU pitcher to have more than 3 starts.

Below is each pitcher’s strikeout rate (K%; K/total batters faced), walk and hit-by-pitch rate (BB%; walks + HBP’s/total batters faced), net strikeout rate (K-BB%), batting average on balls in play (BABIP), total batters faced (TBF), Defense Independent ERA estimator (dERA) and estimated pitches thrown (Pitches):

Name K% BB% K-BB% BABIP dERA Pitches
Achter, AJ 0.171 0.111 0.060 0.340 4.64 1470
Wunderlich, Kurt 0.122 0.096 0.025 0.329 5.17 1293
Bucciferro, Tony 0.135 0.063 0.073 0.322 5.23 1241
Waszak, Andrew 0.181 0.102 0.079 0.388 5.04 731
Popp, Trey 0.182 0.104 0.078 0.370 4.22 531
Frymier, Kurtis 0.176 0.124 0.052 0.343 4.70 528
Wieber, Tony 0.161 0.121 0.040 0.313 7.00 511
Simpson, Tim 0.226 0.097 0.129 0.233 3.87 326
Zwierzynski, Joe 0.233 0.082 0.151 0.408 3.71 256
Corcoran, Kyle 0.048 0.310 -0.262 0.500 16.36 156
Holm, Jeff 0.222 0.111 0.111 0.250 27.77 34
Doty, Stephen 0.250 0.500 -0.250 1.000 61.13 23

Read the rest of this entry »