Returning Adjusted Pitching Runs Above AveragePosted: December 14, 2010
One of the things I wanted to look at with the Adjusted Runs Above Average pitching totals (aRAA) was what teams lost the most talent.
What I did was take the sums from my last post and then subtracted out all of the pitchers that were seniors, red shirt seniors, or juniors that signed with a Major League team in 2010. This left me with a returning aRAA total for the pitching staffs.
Some caveats. Obviously, these being my adjusted totals, they adjust for batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and thus, assume that pitchers have little control over their BABIP’s in college baseball. This is a truism for pro baseball, but whether this actually occurs in college ball, I am not sure. It’s just as likely that it does not extend to college baseball as it does.
Also, these aren’t projections. While I’ve done my best to adjust for ‘luck’ by assigning a league-average BABIP to all of the pitchers, this does not account for growth. In college basketball, the typical player improves the most from his freshman to his sophomore season. This is something that I think probably extends to baseball, too, but I’m not positive. Until I can study how pitchers “age” so-to-speak these are not ‘projections.’
That means these are just what the title implies: the total aRAA accumulated by each team’s pitchers in 2010 once you subtract graduates and early-draftees.
|Team||2010 aRAA||Returning aRAA|
I estimated that Michigan State to have the third most aRAA in 2010 and even though they lose AJ Achter to pro baseball, they still come out essentially the same. The reason for this is because I estimated Achter as being worth 7 aRAA last year while the two senior hurlers on the 2010 squad were Kyle Corcoran and Kurtis Frymier who combined to be worth an estimated -7 aRAA. So the loss of Achter’s positive contributions are balanced out by the loss of Corcoran/Frymier’s sub-average contributions.
The rest of the teams in bullet point fashion:
- Northwestern is a team that my pitching run estimates like a lot more than reality did. I estimated them at +21 aRAA last year and their only loss is Joe Mursaki. However, his 4 runs is canceled out by the loss of David Jensen’s -3 runs.
- Minnesota lost Seth Rosin a year early, but Scott Matyas’ returning for his senior season is an enormous help. If Matyas had signed professionally, Minnesota’s returning aRAA would’ve been just +6.
- Purdue lost arguably the most dominant pitcher in the Big Ten last year, Matt Bischoff. His 25 aRAA is a substantial loss, but the other four seniors — Kevin Cahill, Matt Jansen, Connor Sestak and Drew Wurdack — were worth a cumulative +3 runs. The Boilermakers have a host of sophomores that all contributed a few runs each — and will-be-senior Matt Morgan put up 11 runs last year on the mound which puts Purdue in a good spot pitching-wise.
- File this one under “things I didn’t expect.” Ohio State loses National Pitcher of the Year and still comes out looking good? Well, Wimmers posted +22 runs last year and they also lose Eric Best’s +3. Still, losing only a net total of 9 runs would be better than I had assumed. Edit: When I wrote this paragraph, I was having a brain cramp since it was close to 2 in the morning. Ohio State is losing 25 runs — not good.
- The Wolverines lost some talent in senior Alan Oakes, who posted a +7 aRAA total last year. That, however, was off set by Jeff DeCarlo’s -3 Eric Katzman’s -6. The key is losing Tyler Burgoon’s +16 from last years squad.
- Iowa didn’t have a good pitching staff last year and barring major growth from an underclassman, they could struggle again. They lost Zach Robertson’s +11 and Michael Jacob’s -3. Luckily Jarred Hippen’s +10 is back.
- Illinois basically returns anyone that helped the team on the mound last year. Their only losses are the league-average Mike Sterk and Kevin Manson’s -2. The problem is that no one was really productive on the mound aside from Bryan Roberts +5.
- Penn State actually does have potential to field a worse pitching staff than last year. Senior David Lutz will be taking his +11 total from 2010 with him. Mike Wanamaker’s -1 total is also gone.
- Finally, Indiana’s abysmal pitching staff that couldn’t strike anyone out or keep anyone off the bases — it was really like they had to face their own juggernaut offense all last year — might stay essentially the same. Their only loss is Chris Squires slightly-above-average +3 aRAA total. That mean’s Drew Leininger’s +12 is back, but so is Matt Igel’s -12, among others.
Again, these are no projections, so don’t take these as gospel. Just a fun look at what teams lost a lot in cumulative fashion.