Pitching Run Values for the 2010 Season

Taking a break from my team-by-team review of what I consider to be the essential pitching stats — strikeout percentage, walk percentage, strikeout minus walk percentage, total batters faced — I’m going to bring out a run estimator. While looking at multiple statistics are the better way to go, it’s nice to have a handy singular number to give you an idea of a pitcher’s value to their team.

What I’ve done is pretty simple. I’ve used a Base Runs method to get an ERA estimate. Then, I found the league average for each year I have statistics (2008-2010, though I have team stats for the 2007 season, but have slacked on getting individual numbers for that year). From there, it’s a simple matter of subtracting the pitchers Base Runs ERA from the league average rate and multiple by innings pitched and divide by nine. Voila. Pretty simple. Then again, I did steal this from Patriot over at Walk Like a Sabermetrician.  Below is the top 25 in runs saved in 2010.

Rank	Name	Team	CL	K%	BB%	BABIP	TBF	RAA
1	Wimmers, Alex	OSU	JR	0.293	0.085	0.322	294	33
2	Rosin, Seth	MINN	JR	0.223	0.054	0.298	426	29
3	Bischoff, Matt	PUR	SR	0.240	0.043	0.326	396	26
4	Leininger, Drew	IND	SO	0.161	0.074	0.304	417	24
5	Lutz, David	PSU	SR*	0.166	0.080	0.316	301	23
6	Hippen, Jarred	IOWA	SO	0.161	0.070	0.337	440	20
7	Snieder, Paul	NW	SO	0.220	0.101	0.221	159	20
8	Oaks, Alan	MICH	SR	0.179	0.123	0.274	397	19
9	Oakes, TJ	MINN	FR	0.152	0.077	0.313	375	18
10	Isaksson, Phil	MINN	JR	0.161	0.102	0.278	354	18
11	Brooke, Francis	NW	SO	0.126	0.026	0.308	382	17
12	Burgoon, Tyler	MICH	JR	0.285	0.103	0.373	253	15
13	Achter, AJ	MSU	JR	0.171	0.111	0.340	432	14
14	Bucciferro, Tony	MSU	SO	0.135	0.063	0.322	384	14
15	Robertson, Zach	IOWA	SR	0.242	0.115	0.336	252	12
16	Gailey, Matt	NW	JR	0.167	0.078	0.227	90	11
17	Soule, Billy	MINN	FR	0.161	0.115	0.307	218	11
18	Roberts, Bryan	ILL	SO	0.246	0.102	0.289	118	11
19	Matyas, Scott	MINN	JR	0.385	0.128	0.371	156	11
20	Jokisch, Eric	NW	JR	0.151	0.105	0.348	410	10
21	Cahill, Kevin	PUR	SR	0.222	0.175	0.240	126	10
22	Brosnahan, Bobby	MICH	FR*	0.191	0.135	0.362	319	10
23	Morgan, Matt	PUR	JR	0.228	0.091	0.368	320	10
24	Simpson, Tim	MSU	JR	0.226	0.097	0.233	93	10
25	Haase, Joe	PUR	SO	0.157	0.114	0.273	140	10

K% – strikeouts divided by total batters faced
BB% – walks plus hit batters divided by total batters faced
BABIP – batting average on balls in play
TBF – Total Batters Faced
RAA – Runs Above Average via a Base Runs method

Well this certainly passes the smell test for me. The National Pitcher of the Year, Alex Wimmers, leading the pack and by a decent margin. Behind him, a couple of dominating starters in Golden Gopher Seth Rosin and Purdue’s Matt Bischoff.

Northwestern’s Paul Snieder and Minnesota’s Scott Matyas shows how valuable relievers can be in college. Both ranking in the top 25 in runs above average.

You can make a good case that Iowa’s Jarred Hippen or Indiana’s Drew Leininger as the best returning pitchers. If you want to include ‘upside’ due to youth, I’ll take TJ Oakes from Minnesota. As a freshman, he posted 18 runs above average — a solid seven runs better than any other freshman hurler in 2010 (fellow teammate Billy Soule was second at 11 RAA).

Now, I will say that these are very, very susceptible to a low average on balls in play. For instance, the aforementioned Paul Snieder only had a .221 BABIP. The league average is .345 — that’s .124 point difference! Because of this, more outs occurred with Snider on the mound than one would expect and, thus, he allowed less hits/baserunners which led to less runs. Because the Base Runs method is built on hits and walks and whatnot, low BABIP’s can give readings that are a bit “odd” for the lack of a better term. Because of this, I will virtually always post a pitcher’s BABIP next to their Base Runs.

I am working on a RAA statistic that will hopefully help rectify the low-BABIP problem, but I will have more on that later.

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