Big Ten Conference Recap: Indiana Pitching

The team pitching recaps from the 2010 season are all linked to under the 2010 Season Recap tab. This is the fourth installment, focusing on the Indiana Hoosiers

The Indiana Hoosiers finished the Big Ten conference season just 12-12 while finishing a game over .500 at 28-27 when you include non-conference play.  The Hoosiers had no problems plating runs, scoring 432 all season which was good for second best in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, they had problems preventing other teams from doing the same, allowing a league-high 444 runs.

Below are the raw stats for each of their pitchers in 2010:

Name CLASS K% BB% K-BB% BABIP Pitches TBF
Carr, Matt JR* 0.084 0.154 -0.070 0.288 468 143
Ernest, Matt SO* 0.083 0.183 -0.100 0.350 205 60
Heban, Greg FR 0.100 0.300 -0.200 0.333 43 10
Hoffman, Jonny FR 0.110 0.119 -0.008 0.378 767 236
Igel, Matt SO 0.145 0.184 -0.039 0.418 912 255
Kleman, Jerry FR 0.090 0.220 -0.130 0.358 350 100
Leininger, Drew SO 0.161 0.074 0.086 0.304 1393 417
McKinley, Mike FR 0.145 0.170 -0.025 0.337 555 159
Monar, Blake SO 0.136 0.273 -0.136 0.400 81 22
Roof, Derek FR 0.125 0.153 -0.028 0.408 255 72
Sabourin, Jerrud JR 0.133 0.084 0.048 0.317 272 83
Smith, Casey FR 0.116 0.204 -0.088 0.370 509 147
Squires, Chris SR 0.243 0.141 0.101 0.402 990 276
Stadler, Walker FR 0.129 0.133 -0.003 0.364 1004 294
Swift, Dylan JR 0.000 0.132 -0.132 0.194 123 38
Wilson, Ethan SO* 0.115 0.212 -0.096 0.200 182 52

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Big Ten Conference Recap: Iowa Pitching

The team pitching recaps from the 2010 season are all linked to under the 2010 Season Recap tab. This is the third installment, focusing on the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Iowa Hawkeyes lost in the Big Ten tournament title game after a 13-11 conference record and 30-28 overall record. Including non-conference games, the Hawkeyes scored the 7th fewest runs and allowed the second most in the league — which would indicate that they played “above their heads” for the lack of a better term.

That said, it’s hard to argue with results. So how did their individual pitchers perform? Below is a table of the raw stats for Iowa’s pitchers:

Name K% BB% K-BB% BABIP Pitches TBF
Brennan, Patrick 0.000 0.286 -0.286 0.500 30 7
Brown, Nick 0.169 0.120 0.049 0.342 970 284
Dermody, Matt 0.145 0.121 0.023 0.364 586 173
Gates, Kevin 0.050 0.200 -0.150 0.308 69 20
Hippen, Jarred 0.161 0.070 0.091 0.337 1450 440
Jacobs, Michael 0.111 0.067 0.044 0.406 438 135
Kenyon, Zach 0.133 0.118 0.014 0.337 942 279
Lee, Kevin 0.139 0.129 0.010 0.347 345 101
Pacha, Jeff 0.197 0.070 0.127 0.413 244 71
Robertson, Zach 0.242 0.115 0.127 0.336 902 252
Sandquist, Ricky 0.092 0.138 -0.046 0.358 362 109
Schatz, Patrick 0.094 0.138 -0.044 0.377 603 181
Schreiber, Phil 0.117 0.123 -0.006 0.350 1146 349

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Big Ten Conference Recap: Illinois Pitching

After looking at the Michigan State pitching staff on Monday, I will now look at the remaining teams in the conference alphabetically. We’ll kick it off with the Fighting Illini.

Illinois was middle-of-the-pack in the Big Ten with 347 runs allowed on the season. However, that’s where the good news ends. As a team, they struck out the second fewest hitters as judged by their strikeout percentage (K/total batters faced) at just 12.5% while having the fourth highest walk and hit-by-pitch percentage as well. The likely cause for Illinois finishing fifth in the Big Ten in runs allowed is the league’s lowest BABIP against — just .329 which puts them about 5% below the league average of .345 — and in a sample of 2000 batters faced, that becomes a substantial amount of hits.

Below is the Illini’s individual pitching raw data:

Name K% BB% K-BB% BABIP dERA Pitches TBF
Anderson, John 0.173 0.125 0.048 0.284 7.34 361 104
Barrett, Billy 0.052 0.172 -0.121 0.244 9.58 198 58
Braun, Wes 0.144 0.111 0.033 0.354 5.08 309 90
Chmielewski, Nick 0.158 0.105 0.053 0.538 4.14 67 19
de la Torriente, B. 0.100 0.108 -0.009 0.333 7.38 750 231
Johnson, Kevin 0.156 0.118 0.038 0.313 5.71 1146 340
Kimes, Corey 0.102 0.170 -0.068 0.359 6.22 298 88
Libby, Tanner 0.125 0.146 -0.021 0.257 5.17 166 48
Manson, Kevin 0.072 0.077 -0.004 0.321 7.02 736 235
Milroy, Matt 0.142 0.184 -0.043 0.396 7.12 501 141
Roberts, Bryan 0.246 0.102 0.144 0.289 3.04 415 118
Sterk, Mike 0.064 0.072 -0.008 0.295 6.03 391 125
Strack, Will 0.148 0.148 0.000 0.340 6.80 767 223
Zerrusen, Lee 0.101 0.141 -0.039 0.356 7.79 1022 306

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2010 Big Ten Conference Recap: Michigan State Pitching

Now that I’ve covered both pitching and hitting on the team level, I’m going to delve into the same stuff  on the individual level.

My plan to look at individual pitching is to look for each team. Each post should be shorter than long-winded posts on all of the teams at once. With this being a Michigan State baseball blog, after all, I’ve decided to focus on the Spartans first in the series.

The Spartans on the team level allowed a league-low 309 runs versus an estimated 311 which also led the Big Ten. AJ Achter, now a Minnesota Twin, really paced the Spartans’ staff. He led the team in innings pitched (98.2), strikeouts (74),  and total batters faced (432).  He also had a team-high 36 walks and 12 hit batters.

Kurt Wunderlich and Tony Bucciferro rounded out the normal 3-man rotation as they combined to start 76% of the Spartans games. Andrew Waszak’s 9 starts made him only other MSU pitcher to have more than 3 starts.

Below is each pitcher’s strikeout rate (K%; K/total batters faced), walk and hit-by-pitch rate (BB%; walks + HBP’s/total batters faced), net strikeout rate (K-BB%), batting average on balls in play (BABIP), total batters faced (TBF), Defense Independent ERA estimator (dERA) and estimated pitches thrown (Pitches):

Name K% BB% K-BB% BABIP dERA Pitches
Achter, AJ 0.171 0.111 0.060 0.340 4.64 1470
Wunderlich, Kurt 0.122 0.096 0.025 0.329 5.17 1293
Bucciferro, Tony 0.135 0.063 0.073 0.322 5.23 1241
Waszak, Andrew 0.181 0.102 0.079 0.388 5.04 731
Popp, Trey 0.182 0.104 0.078 0.370 4.22 531
Frymier, Kurtis 0.176 0.124 0.052 0.343 4.70 528
Wieber, Tony 0.161 0.121 0.040 0.313 7.00 511
Simpson, Tim 0.226 0.097 0.129 0.233 3.87 326
Zwierzynski, Joe 0.233 0.082 0.151 0.408 3.71 256
Corcoran, Kyle 0.048 0.310 -0.262 0.500 16.36 156
Holm, Jeff 0.222 0.111 0.111 0.250 27.77 34
Doty, Stephen 0.250 0.500 -0.250 1.000 61.13 23

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2010 Big Ten Conference Recap: Team Hitting

On Wednesday I looked at how each team fared on the pitching side of things, relative to the league average. Now it’s time to focus on the offensive side of things.

But what do we look for? Pitching is pretty easy: you don’t want to let the batter put the ball in play and you don’t want to give up base runners via the walk or hit-by-pitch. But hitters are different as if you want to measure some amount of power, you need to take the context into the equation. And I don’t mean just how does Team A stack up against the conference average; that’s just half the battle. You must account for the park as well.

For that, I’m using 2006-2009 Total Park Factors (includes road parks as well) from Boyd’s World. I waffled on whether I should use a Strength of Schedule component or not and I really wanted to. However, the way I adjust for park factors and SOS, I need it in the form where 100 is average. Boyd publishes that data, but not until well after the season, so the only version I have of that (to my knowledge) is his pre-season “intended” strength of schedule ratings. Obviously those become outdated once the season has been played. So until further notice, I am not using a SOS adjustment in the offensive metrics  that need adjust (basically, my power metric).

Like with pitchers, here’s the raw data for each club, sorted alphabetically:

TEAM K% BB% AVG OBP SLG BABIP
ILL 0.140 0.119 0.293 0.375 0.427 0.330
IND 0.166 0.109 0.327 0.399 0.528 0.368
IOWA 0.169 0.119 0.297 0.379 0.409 0.354
MICH 0.171 0.115 0.321 0.396 0.481 0.374
MINN 0.166 0.105 0.305 0.376 0.430 0.357
MSU 0.131 0.109 0.325 0.395 0.471 0.361
NW 0.162 0.103 0.303 0.374 0.420 0.355
OSU 0.120 0.123 0.324 0.404 0.446 0.355
PSU 0.194 0.107 0.298 0.371 0.434 0.358
PUR 0.132 0.113 0.312 0.386 0.466 0.340

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2010 Big Ten Conference Recap: Team Pitching

After looking at some runs estimations on Tuesday that helped us derive expected win percentages, I figured it was a nice time to dive into pitching on the team level.

Like I’ve done at Adjusting the Ping, I’ve put each of the components that I will look at on a scale akin to OPS+ where 100 is average. This was inspired by Harry Pavlidis.

First, we’ll look at the raw numbers:

Team K% BB% K-BB% K/BB
ILL 0.125 0.124 0.001 1.01
IND 0.140 0.145 -0.005 0.97
IOWA 0.147 0.110 0.037 1.34
MICH 0.178 0.132 0.046 1.35
MINN 0.170 0.109 0.062 1.57
MSU 0.159 0.103 0.057 1.55
NW 0.160 0.095 0.065 1.69
OSU 0.168 0.098 0.070 1.71
PSU 0.121 0.127 -0.005 0.96
PUR 0.191 0.101 0.091 1.90

K% = K/Total Batters Faced
BB% = BB+HBP/Total Batters Faced
K-BB% = K% – BBHBP%
K/BB = Strikeout per every walk+hit batter

Like Mr. Pavlidis did above, I’ve added hit by pitches with walks, as they’re both essentially the same thing. It’s because of the inclusion of HBP’s that make Indiana and Penn State negative in K-BB%.

However, we can’t know how good Purdue’s K-BB% is until we know how they rate against the average Big Ten team.

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2010 Big Ten Conference Recap: Adjusted Standings

To kick off my first analytical piece of the Big Ten as a whole, I’m going to present the Big Ten standings in a bit different fashion. One way to adjust the standings is to find a Pythagorean Record. Basically, you square a teams runs scored and runs allowed. You then take the squared runs scored and divide by the sum of the squared runs scored and runs allowed. I don’t want to say that this has become a “faux pas” among Sabermetrics recently, but it’s not the ideal method.

What I’m doing is using a Linear Weights-based BaseRuns method to estimate a runs scored and runs allowed total. In honesty, I’m stealing this from Patriot, a well-known Sabermetric writer.

Below, you will find the 2010 Big Ten standings based on a win percentage derived from my runs created/allowed methods:

TEAM Act. W% PW% EW%
PUR 0.579 0.608 0.621
MSU 0.642 0.645 0.614
MINN 0.517 0.567 0.577
MICH 0.614 0.628 0.556
OSU 0.549 0.530 0.538
IND 0.509 0.487 0.514
NW 0.429 0.419 0.487
ILL 0.500 0.493 0.472
PSU 0.423 0.455 0.442
IOWA 0.517 0.430 0.441

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