Previewing Day 2 of the Big Ten Conference Tournament

Posted: May 25, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Stats | Leave a comment »

Well, day one is in the books on the Big Ten Tournament and Ohio State and Purdue picked up victories. Ohio State had an 8th inning rally which accounted for all five of their runs to beat Minnesota 5-3. Purdue was down 2-0 before firing off seven unanswered runs which, behind the right arm of Matt Morgan was plenty to cruise passed Penn State. You can find plenty of recaps around the web, so I won’t spend too much time on that.

Let’s look ahead to tomorrow where Ohio State will take on the top seed Illinois Fighting illini. Meanwhile, The Boilermakers win got them a match up with the second-seeded Michigan State Spartans. As a result of their losses, fifth-seeded Minnesota will play sixth-seeded Penn State, as well.

What I will do is use a method called the Log5 to determine the likelihood each team wins their games tomorrow. Read the rest of this entry »

Presenting 2011 Stat Leaderboards

Posted: April 6, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, General, Stats | Leave a comment »

I just put together some statistical leaderboards for the 2011 campaign so far. You can find these easily under the 2011 Leaderboard tab on the top right and they will be updated at my discretion (read: when I have time). In an ideal world, I’ll have these updated every Monday or Tuesday, but I make no promises on that.

As of right now, I’ve compiled the team Defensive Efficiency Ratio and data for individual hitters, starting pitchers and relief pitchers. If you’re looking for regular earned run average or a hitters batting average, or on-base percentage, then these leaderboards are not for you.

What I’ve presented, I’ll quickly run through.

Hitters

What I’ve included is the percentage of plate appearances the hitter either strikes out, walks/gets hit by a pitch. Along with that, I’ve included a hitter’s isolated power which I have adjusted using these park factors from Boyd’s World. The data, unfortunately, is not adjusted for competition. As of right now, I’d have to calculate the strength of schedule adjustment on my own and, honestly, I’m not willing to really mess with that for the time being. I also have a Runs Above Average total for each hitter listed that is calculated using the Base Runs method.

Pitchers

I’ve broken pitchers into two leaderboards and three separate roles. For pitchers who start a game in 70% or more of their appearances, they are labeled as starting pitchers. For those who get a start in 40-69% of their appearances, I’ve dubbed them swingmen. Finally, those who start games in 39% of their appearances or fewer, they are relievers.

The stats I have for all pitchers are K% and BB%, like I do for hitters. These are the most important numbers to look at. Sure, I’ve got advanced data with an ERA replicate born out of the Base Runs method and then adjusted for park — from which I get the runs above average totals — but the meat of the data for pitchers is in the strikeout and walk/HBP totals.

Team Levels

I currently have Defensive Efficiency Ratio which is calculated just like it is at Baseball Prospectus. This is the best measure for defense at the major league level. I feel that this holds true — perhaps even more so — at the college level, as well.

For team hitting,  I’ve included the teams K%, BB%, BABIP and park adjusted isolated power. Pitching, I have included K%, BB% and BABIP, but also give the teams’ traditional ERA as well as a base runs derived runs allowed metric.

I have a standings page as well. Here, you’ll find actual runs scored and allowed, estimated runs scored and allowed — derived, again, from the Base Runs method — and the team’s actual winning percentage, predicted win percentage and estimated win percentage. The difference between the three are explained on that page itself.

2011 Standings

Posted: April 6, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Stats | Leave a comment »

Updated for games through Monday, April 5th.

TEAM RS RA eRS eRA W% PW% EW%
MSU 141 91 170 104 0.708 0.708 0.741
PSU 150 98 169 111 0.680 0.703 0.703
PUR 204 154 233 159 0.630 0.638 0.685
IND 173 128 188 156 0.667 0.647 0.592
OSU 123 141 130 129 0.476 0.432 0.505
ILL 120 126 120 122 0.429 0.476 0.492
NW 114 139 124 156 0.333 0.403 0.386
MINN 79 106 95 120 0.526 0.359 0.384
IOWA 120 137 131 166 0.400 0.436 0.383
MICH 98 172 121 172 0.280 0.231 0.327
AVG 132 129 148 140

RS – Actual Runs Scored
RA – Actual Runs Allowed
eRS – Estimated Runs Scored calculated using the base runs method
eRA- Estimated Runs Allowed calculated using the base runs method
W% – Actual Winning Percentage
PW% – Predicted Winning Percentage; calculated using actual runs scored and allowed
EW% – Estimated Winning Percentage; calculated using estimated runs scored and allowed

2011 Team Pitching

Posted: April 6, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Stats | Leave a comment »

Updated for all games through April 5th.

TEAM K% BB% BABIP ERA pERA
ILL 0.146 0.142 0.316 4.96 7.70
IND 0.156 0.137 0.306 3.64 6.35
IOWA 0.151 0.133 0.348 4.36 9.02
MICH 0.144 0.144 0.354 5.42 9.10
MINN 0.164 0.108 0.340 4.63 8.36
MSU 0.156 0.096 0.301 2.83 5.70
NW 0.158 0.114 0.368 4.94 7.78
OSU 0.140 0.149 0.323 5.33 7.13
PSU 0.170 0.133 0.292 3.04 5.66
PUR 0.184 0.082 0.360 4.73 6.93
AVG 0.157 0.124 0.331

K% – Percentage of plate appearances a player strikes out in
BB% – Percentage of plate appearances a player walks OR draws a hit by pitch
BABIP – Batting Average on Balls In Play; a measure of ‘luck’
ERA – Earned Runs Allowed Per Nine Innings
pERA – An ERA replicate via the Base Runs method that is adjusted for park

2011 Team Hitting

Posted: April 6, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Stats | Leave a comment »

Updated for games through Monday, April 5th.

TEAM K% BB% BABIP ISO*
ILL 0.145 0.110 0.295 0.099
IND 0.137 0.108 0.322 0.105
IOWA 0.174 0.126 0.311 0.072
MICH 0.188 0.113 0.295 0.073
MINN 0.196 0.098 0.322 0.108
MSU 0.126 0.100 0.347 0.122
NW 0.173 0.099 0.318 0.104
OSU 0.155 0.118 0.340 0.096
PSU 0.194 0.114 0.346 0.150
PUR 0.123 0.137 0.350 0.152
AVG 0.159 0.113 0.325 0.103

K% – Percentage of plate appearances a player strikes out in
BB% – Percentage of plate appearances a player walks OR draws a hit by pitch
BABIP – Batting Average on Balls In Play; a measure of ‘luck’
Iso* – Park-adjusted Isolated Power, Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average

2011 Relief Pitcher Leaderboards

Posted: April 6, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Runs Above Average | Leave a comment »

Updated for games through Monday, April 5th. Minimum 75 batters faced

Rk Name Team RL K% BB% BABIP pERA paRAA
1 Martin, Chad IND SW 0.137 0.087 0.248 4.28 7.7
2 Walkling, Dave PSU RP 0.341 0.098 0.283 3.31 6.5
3 Ignas, Ryan PSU RP 0.117 0.096 0.236 3.63 6.3
4 Dearden, Matt IND RP 0.157 0.135 0.258 3.84 5.1
5 Wieber, Tony MSU RP 0.204 0.108 0.238 4.70 3.4
6 Korte, Brian IND SW 0.110 0.061 0.303 4.62 3.3
7 McKinney, Brett OSU RP 0.147 0.093 0.278 4.61 2.8
8 Jahns, Michael NW RP 0.146 0.146 0.299 5.37 1.8
9 Strack, Will ILL RP 0.198 0.139 0.292 5.48 1.6
10 Halstead, Ryan IND RP 0.156 0.091 0.286 5.46 1.3
11 Lala, Patrick IOWA RP 0.167 0.222 0.208 5.58 1.1
12 Wittgren, Nick PUR RP 0.222 0.046 0.333 5.75 1.0
13 Fangman, Tim IOWA RP 0.101 0.101 0.309 5.89 0.5
14 Carr, Matt IND RP 0.197 0.148 0.247 6.13 -0.1
15 Clark, Kyle MICH SW 0.129 0.099 0.302 6.22 -0.4
16 Quigley, Jack NW RP 0.175 0.125 0.346 6.34 -0.5
17 Haase, Joe PUR SW 0.158 0.082 0.336 6.43 -1.3
18 Ramer, Robert PUR RP 0.209 0.116 0.315 7.04 -2.0
19 Breedlove, Lance PUR RP 0.095 0.052 0.364 7.32 -3.3
20 Leininger, Drew IND SW 0.112 0.099 0.316 7.41 -4.8
21 Lakatos, Alex MICH RP 0.171 0.210 0.326 8.81 -4.8
22 Ballentine, Ben MICH RP 0.161 0.145 0.354 7.77 -4.9
23 Vangheluwe, Kevin MICH RP 0.227 0.148 0.385 8.67 -5.4
24 DeNato, Joey IND SW 0.196 0.155 0.377 8.26 -5.5
25 Mascarello, Blake PUR RP 0.186 0.062 0.410 8.16 -5.6
26 Waszak, Andrew MSU SW 0.078 0.126 0.346 9.48 -7.9
27 Pack, Chris ILL RP 0.108 0.118 0.333 10.16 -9.5
28 Sandquist, Ricky IOWA SW 0.063 0.168 0.406 15.27 -18.6
AVG 0.157 0.124 0.331 7.44

RL – Pitcher’s roll. If a pitcher started 40-69% of his games, he is a swingman (SW) and 0-39% is a relief pitcher (RP)
K% – Percentage of batters faced a pitcher struck out.
BB% – Percentage of batters faced a pitcher walked and hit by pitch
BABIP – Batting Average on Balls In Play; a measure of ‘luck’
pERA – An ERA replicate via the Base Runs method that is adjusted for park
RAA – Using pERA to estimate a pitchers ‘true’ amount of runs contributed to his team.

2011 Starting Pitcher Leaderboards

Posted: April 6, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Runs Above Average | Leave a comment »

Updated for games through Monday, April 5th. Minimum 75 batters faced

Rk Name Team K% BB% BABIP pERA paRAA
1 Schreiber, Brad PUR 0.259 0.068 0.278 3.76 9.3
2 Buccifero, Tony MSU 0.136 0.060 0.290 4.48 8.6
3 Hill, Steven PSU 0.182 0.051 0.275 4.53 8.4
4 Rucinski, Drew OSU 0.170 0.080 0.321 4.41 5.1
5 Anderson, John ILL 0.155 0.108 0.295 5.32 2.9
6 Wunderlich, Kurt MSU 0.187 0.096 0.315 5.61 2.4
7 Walter, John PSU 0.192 0.147 0.299 5.62 1.9
8 Morgan, Matt PUR 0.205 0.143 0.271 5.58 1.4
9 Garner, David MSU 0.168 0.102 0.333 5.95 0.5
10 Johnson, Kevin ILL 0.165 0.106 0.305 6.11 -0.1
11 Wolosiansky, Dean OSU 0.104 0.185 0.275 6.26 -0.5
12 Farrell, Luke NW 0.209 0.092 0.375 6.28 -0.7
13 Monar, Blake IND 0.193 0.140 0.385 6.84 -3.1
14 Brown, Nick IOWA 0.140 0.118 0.294 7.10 -4.6
15 Tyson, Dan NW 0.121 0.092 0.364 8.17 -6.7
16 Johnson, Heath PSU 0.110 0.233 0.312 8.32 -7.2
17 Lubinsky, Austin MINN 0.168 0.118 0.358 8.76 -7.4
18 Mills, Tyler MICH 0.180 0.129 0.371 8.15 -7.5
19 Oakes, TJ MINN 0.135 0.088 0.358 8.29 -8.3
20 Isaksson, Phil MINN 0.099 0.083 0.308 9.00 -9.4
21 Greve, Greg OSU 0.176 0.112 0.412 10.07 -11.1
22 Brooke, Francis NW 0.168 0.029 0.481 10.11 -12.9
23 Hippen, Jarred IOWA 0.140 0.084 0.348 9.14 -13.9
24 Dermody, Matt IOWA 0.202 0.150 0.371 9.62 -14.2
25 Havey, Jack NW 0.132 0.139 0.404 11.29 -17.3
26 Kimes, Corey ILL 0.150 0.170 0.387 11.86 -18.7
27 Brosnahan, Bobby MICH 0.101 0.107 0.386 10.82 -19.9
AVG 0.157 0.124 0.331 7.44

K% – Percentage of batters faced a pitcher struck out.
BB% – Percentage of batters faced a pitcher walked and hit by pitch
BABIP – Batting Average on Balls In Play; a measure of ‘luck’
pERA – An ERA replicate via the Base Runs method that is adjusted for park
RAA – Using pERA to estimate a pitchers ‘true’ amount of runs contributed to his team.

2011 Individual Hitting

Posted: April 6, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Runs Above Average | Leave a comment »

Updated for games through Monday, April 5th. Minimum 50 plate appearances.

Rk Name Team PA K% BB% BABIP ISO* PA RAA
1 Holm, Jeff MSU 107 0.065 0.140 0.410 0.198 12.2
2 Deegan, Sean PSU 119 0.176 0.059 0.407 0.306 10.8
3 Eckerle, Brandon MSU 117 0.051 0.103 0.454 0.066 9.3
4 Johnson, Micha IU 131 0.214 0.122 0.453 0.125 9.2
5 Boss, Torsten MSU 109 0.147 0.101 0.429 0.247 9.1
6 Steranka, Jordan PSU 119 0.143 0.076 0.368 0.296 7.6
7 Dickerson, Alex IU 126 0.071 0.119 0.367 0.191 7.6
8 Perkins, Cameron PUR 124 0.097 0.097 0.372 0.201 6.5
9 Cypret, Ryan OSU 95 0.042 0.095 0.392 0.175 6.2
10 Talbott, Stephen PUR 114 0.132 0.167 0.400 0.117 6.1
11 Spillner, Tyler PUR 126 0.111 0.143 0.364 0.215 6.0
12 Snieder, Paul NW 103 0.184 0.126 0.409 0.205 4.9
13 DeMuth, Dustin IU 139 0.144 0.108 0.446 0.087 4.6
14 Solomon, Greg OSU 67 0.239 0.045 0.522 0.220 3.7
15 DeBernardis, Joey PSU 116 0.172 0.103 0.405 0.179 3.4
16 Plawecki, Kevin PUR 122 0.033 0.131 0.382 0.061 2.9
17 Bridges, Ryan PUR 93 0.129 0.129 0.359 0.214 2.8
18 Nick O’Shea MINN 59 0.085 0.068 0.367 0.212 2.5
19 Livingston, Jack NW 57 0.211 0.140 0.389 0.240 2.3
20 Serrato, Barrett PUR 119 0.168 0.118 0.417 0.094 2.1
21 Stevens, Trevor NW 114 0.149 0.175 0.392 0.070 1.9
22 Lashmet, Chris NW 113 0.097 0.097 0.367 0.126 1.8
23 Schultz, Trip MINN 63 0.111 0.175 0.318 0.151 1.6
24 Gominsky, Justin MINN 82 0.159 0.085 0.435 0.061 1.5
25 O’Neill, Michael MICH 110 0.173 0.091 0.375 0.113 1.3

Rk – Rank
PA – Plate Appearances
BABIP – Batting Average on Balls In Play; a measure of ‘luck’
K% – Percentage of plate appearances a player strikes out in
BB% – Percentage of plate appearances a player walks OR draws a hit by pitch
Iso* – Park-adjusted Isolated Power, Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average;
RAA – Runs Above Average using a Base Runs method and adjusted for park. Estimate of the number of ‘true’ runs a player contributes to his team.

2011 Team Defense

Posted: April 6, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Defensive Efficiency, Research | Leave a comment »

Updated for all games through April 5th.

Rk TEAM DER Err BIP Out xOut Delta
1 IND 0.662 31 775 513 489 24
2 MSU 0.660 32 670 442 422 20
3 PSU 0.657 38 647 425 408 17
4 ILL 0.653 26 597 390 376 14
5 MINN 0.636 19 538 342 339 3
6 OSU 0.624 37 593 370 374 -4
7 IOWA 0.621 33 742 461 468 -7
8 MICH 0.611 37 736 450 464 -14
9 PUR 0.598 37 774 463 488 -25
10 NW 0.589 36 676 398 426 -28
AVG 0.630

DER – Defensive Efficiency Ratio. Formula taken from Baseball Prospectus; Measures number of balls in play turned into outs by the team
ERR – Errors
BIP – Number of Balls In Play
Out – Number of Outs Converted
xOut – Expected number of outs converted if said team had a league average DER and had the exact same number of BIP as the team in question
Delta – Difference between expected outs and actual outs
List is sorted by team DER

B1G Ten Hitting Stars of the Weekend

Posted: February 21, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Big Ten Baseball, Recaps, Stats | 5 Comments »

After recapping briefly the pitching stars of the weekend, I just gathered the data for the hitters this weekend. I’ll keep it much like pitching post and give, statistically, the three stars for Big Ten-Big East challenge.

Third Star: Illinois shortstop Josh Parr had a very good weekend. The junior went 5-of-13 with a double, triple, a walk and a hit-by-pitch. All of that led to a .385/.467/.615 triple-slash line. This worked out to being worth around 2.4 runs above average.

Read the rest of this entry »

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